NYT reviews an interesting book by O.Pilkey (Columbia University Press, 2007). The book focuses on the problems of complex models trying to predict (instead of just understand) complex natural phenomena.
If that is the case for natural phenomena, what one could say about social phenomena, where strategic behavior and endogenous technological change increase the complexity some orders of magnitude.
Models are not useless, but their value has limitations that should be transparent. Modelers should strive for transparency of assumptions and limitations, not easy task, because it is then that their work becomes most valuable.
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